[TrueView Biz] Jan 22 Midday: Apple Vision Pro Pre-Sales Soar

Apple Vision Pro launch

“Apple Vision Pro officially starts pre-orders in the US. According to reports, the Apple website’s servers were overwhelmed just 5 minutes after pre-orders began, causing many customers’ orders to be unprocessed. Moreover, due to insufficient stock of the initial batch of Vision Pro, it was announced that the stock was sold out after 18 minutes, and two hours into the ordering process, shipment dates were already scheduled for March and even April.” Lei Jun once again mentions Xiaomi’s goal of being in the global top five automakers; NIO speeds into the ‘independent manufacturing’ fast lane with the renaming of its Hefei production base.

Top News

Lei Jun Reiterates Xiaomi’s Goal to be Top Five Global Automaker

  • On January 22nd, Lei Jun reposted the news from CCTV Finance about Xiaomi Cars, stating: “Xiaomi Cars aims to be among the world’s top five automakers after 15 to 20 years of hard work, striving for the comprehensive rise of China’s automotive industry!”

Enthusiastic Pre-Orders for Apple Vision Pro Signal Revolutionary Opportunities for Content Ecosystem

  • The Apple Vision Pro has officially begun pre-orders in the United States. According to reports, the Apple website’s servers were swamped only five minutes into the opening of pre-orders, causing difficulty in processing numerous orders. Furthermore, due to insufficient stock of the first batch of Vision Pro, it was declared out of stock within 18 minutes, and just two hours later, the delivery dates had been pushed back to March or even April.

  • Yu Fenghui, a special research fellow at China’s Financial Think Tank, told Securities Daily that the overwhelming success of the pre-orders for Apple Vision Pro will bring significant market opportunities to the industry chain’s listed companies. Meanwhile, as MR technology matures, its application will become more widespread in gaming, film, education, healthcare, industrial, and other scenarios, continually expanding the market size.

  • Before the pre-order phase, Apple analyst Guo Mingchi anticipated a fervent market reception of the Vision Pro. On January 11th, Guo Mingchi publicly remarked that the initial stock of the Vision Pro ranged from 60,000 to 80,000 units. He also expressed earlier that the Vision Pro will be Apple’s most important product in 2024, predicting an annual shipment of 500,000 units.

  • Shanxi Securities research report suggests that around 60% of Vision Pro’s supply chain involves mainland China. In terms of assembly, Minsheng Securities research report indicates that Luxshare Precision and Goertek are participants; for components, it’s recommended to pay attention to Zhao Wei Electronics, GoerTek Acoustics, Changying Precision, Orbbec, Leyard, Sanli Spectrum; and for equipment support, companies like JPT Electronics, Zolix, Huaxing Optic-Electric Technology, Bosuo Technology, Shenke Medical, Rongqi Technology, and Jingce Electronic have contributed.

  • Moreover, the reporter from Securities Daily learned from sources within Apple’s industrial chain that Lens Technology has deeply involved in the Vision Pro’s industrial chain. Lens Technology has developed and produced the glass display panels for Apple’s first MR headset along with multiple camera protection screens and optical lens films.

NIO Accelerates into ‘Independent Manufacturing’ with Renaming Hefei Production Base

  • Recently, multiple media outlets reported that NIO’s two Hefei-based production bases—NIO Automobile Technology (Anhui) Co. Ltd’s first and second branches—have been renamed as the first and second manufacturing base branches. Before the renaming of the Hefei production base, NIO Automobile Technology (Anhui) Co. Ltd appeared in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s vehicle production enterprise credit information management system, which implies that NIO has successfully obtained independent manufacturing qualifications. NIO’s founder, chairman, and CEO Li Bin also stated: “From a manufacturing perspective, if we wholly manufacture by ourselves, the manufacturing costs could be reduced by 10%.”

  • In the increasingly competitive new energy vehicle market, the capability for high-quality delivery is an external focus, and obtaining independent manufacturing qualifications is undoubtedly vital for NIO’s development. On January 11th, 2024, during a site visit, a responsible person from NIO’s second advanced manufacturing base claimed that it only takes 14 days for the base to finish car production from receiving customer orders, which is at an industry-leading level.

  • In NIO’s 2024 internal letter, Li Bin also emphasized: “Ensuring the lead in technology and product delivery, and meeting fierce market competition with sales and service capabilities, so that our selling potential translates rapidly into sales volumes.”

Today’s Foreign Exchange and Commodities Information

EUR/USD: Euro gains against weakening dollar hit resistance at 1.0900

  • The weakening dollar led to an increase for the EUR/USD at the opening of the week.

  • The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in its March meeting dropped from 81% a week ago to 49.3%.

  • The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged during its January rate meeting.

  • This week, attention will be on the European Central Bank’s rate decision, the U.S. Q4 Gross Domestic Product, and the U.S. core PCE Price Index.

  • On Monday morning during the Asian session, the EUR/USD saw a slight rise, approaching the 1.0900 threshold. The European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday is a central focus of traders. At the time of the report, EUR/USD was trading at 1.0897, up 0.03% for the day.

  • Following last week’s economic data from the U.S., which showed signs of improvement, including retail sales and consumer confidence index, confidence in the Fed cutting rates in March has weakened. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March has fallen from 81% from the previous week to 49.3%.

  • On the other hand, members of the ECB Governing Council are cautious about easing monetary policy prematurely. The policy meeting this Thursday is not expected to bring any changes from the ECB. However, traders will be looking for further clues from ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-meeting speech and whether Lagarde will confirm expectations for a rate cut this year. Investors believe the ECB will start cutting rates this spring as a move toward tighter real policy rates will push inflation levels steadily towards the 2% target.

  • The ECB’s monetary policy decision is due on Thursday and is expected to remain unchanged. Additionally, the U.S. Q4 GDP annual rate will be released on Thursday, followed by December’s PCE Price Index on Friday, which is the inflation indicator the Fed values most.

Precious Metals: Gold rally hits resistance

  • As of January 19th, COMEX Gold futures have cumulatively fallen by 0.97%. The market believes that the tension between Houthi rebels and U.S. forces in a major commercial shipping route in the Red Sea is escalating. Against this setting, precious metals have seen a substantial revival, but the near-term outlook has not turned bullish due to the reduced betting on Fed rate cuts, seemingly limiting further upside.

  • Dahua Futures believes that in the short term, the resilience of U.S. consumer spending has increased market expectations for an economic soft landing, which together with cooling expectations for rate cuts, has caused the U.S. ten-year real yield to recover, dampening the enthusiasm for long positions on international gold prices. Despite short-term pressure, in the long run, the possibility of further weakening in U.S. consumer spending, which predominantly drives the economy, along with Federal Reserve’s monetary policy turn within the year, suggests that international gold prices may still have strong support, and a long-term upward trend may persist.

  • Guosen Securities thinks within the framework of real interest rates, we are currently in the right side allocation period for gold stocks between the Fed stopping rate hikes and clearly signaling rate cuts. Gold stocks have not realized all the expected returns from gold price increases, and it is expected that a significant uptrend will emerge after the Fed clearly signals rate cuts.

Crude Oil: Explosions at Russian Port Spark Concerns – What Impact on Supply?

  • On January 21st, citing reports from TASS, Reference News reported that explosions occurred at the Novatek facility in the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad region, according to Yuri Zaporatsky, head of the Kingisepp district. Ust-Luga is the largest port in the Baltic Sea, where Novatek, Russia’s largest LNG exporter, handles the fractionation and transshipment of LNG.

  • In response, the Ukrainian National Security Agency stated that in the early hours of January 21st, Ukrainian national security departments launched a special operation against a wharf in the port of Ust-Luga in Leningrad region, Russia. The attack, using drones, triggered a fire. The aim of the operation was to disrupt Russian military fuel logistics.

  • Moreover, the international oil market is facing a massive transport crisis. Following intensive airstrikes by the UK and the US on Houthi militia anti-ship missile bases, the Houthis threatened retaliation against British and American merchant ships. Industry insiders estimate that due to numerous oil tankers urgently changing their routes, nearly 9 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq might face shipping delays. Global shipping giant Maersk warned that the entire global shipping network could falter due to heightened risks in the Red Sea.

  • On January 21st, citing reports from TASS, Reference News reported that Yuri Zaporatsky, head of the Kingisepp district in the Leningrad region, said that the fire in the port of Ust-Luga was caused by two explosions.

  • The report quoted Zaporatsky as saying on the Telegram messaging app, “At 2:45 am on January 21st, Leningrad region governor Alexander Drozdenko called to report that two explosions had occurred at Novatek’s facility in the port of Ust-Luga earlier that morning. A security command meeting was held at 3 am, and a decision was made to enter a high state of alert.”

Article Source: Goldhorse Capital Extramile

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