Kuo: Apple to Launch Redesigned iPhone, Sales Drop Expected This Year

Apple Expected to Launch Redesigned iPhone with Anticipated Drop in Sales

On January 30th, IT Home reported that according to the latest supply chain survey, Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipment estimate for key upstream semiconductor components to around 200 million units, a 15% decline compared to the previous year. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities stated in a recent Medium article that among the leading global smartphone brands in 2024, Apple may experience the most significant decline in sales.

iPhone

A detailed breakdown reveals that the shipment forecast for the iPhone 15 series and the new iPhone 16 series is expected to decline by 10-15% year-on-year in the first and second quarters of this year. The notable decline is attributed to the “structural challenges” faced by the iPhone, including the following key factors:

  • The emergence of “new design paradigms” in high-end phones: AI (Generative AI) phones and foldable phones
  • Sustained decline in shipments in the Chinese market: Mainly attributed to factors such as Huawei’s resurgence and the gradual preference of high-end users for foldable phones when upgrading.

In the past few weeks, Apple’s weekly shipments have been declining by 30-40% year-on-year, a trend that is expected to continue.

Kuo also discussed his predictions for future iPhone models, anticipating that Apple might introduce a “significantly redesigned” iPhone model and launch a more comprehensive and differentiated generative AI ecosystem or applications as early as 2025. Prior to this, the aforementioned structural challenges are likely to continue to impede Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.

As previously reported by IT Home, foreign media The Information claimed this month that Apple is exploring the introduction of a dedicated camera button in the iPhone 16 series. The button is designed mechanically but supports touch control on the surface, allowing for zoom in/out functionality. Additionally, the button can respond to changes in pressure, with light presses for focusing and deeper presses for capturing photos.

iPhone Camera Button

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