Decline in Market Demand in the United States Surpasses Expectations

According to Bloomberg, the sales of Apple Vision Pro seems to be following a familiar pattern seen with every VR headset before: an exciting initial launch, a surge in sales, customers flocking to stores for firsthand experience, and then a decline in demand. Currently, the demand for in-store demonstrations is decreasing, with reserved appointments often going unfulfilled. Additionally, sales figures (at least in some places) have dropped from several units per day to only a few units per week. Consequently, Apple is increasing its promotional efforts.

Further Reading: Bloomberg: Apple’s in-store Vision Pro demo reservations decrease as Apple ramps up promotions
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Renowned Apple insider Ming-Chi Kuo recently stated that the decline in market demand in the United States has surpassed expectations, leading Apple to revise its shipment forecast for the Apple Vision Pro to 400,000-500,000 units. As a result, Apple is also taking a more conservative view of demand in non-U.S. markets, and is reassessing and adjusting its headset development strategy. It is possible that there will be no new models of Apple Vision Pro in 2025.

Kuo revealed the following findings from his latest research:

• Apple has revised the 2024 Vision Pro shipment to 400,000-450,000 units (compared to the market consensus of 700,000-800,000 units or more).
• Apple reduced orders for Vision Pro in non-U.S. markets before its release, indicating that the decline in market demand in the United States has surpassed expectations, prompting Apple to adopt a more conservative view of demand in non-U.S. markets.
• Apple is reassessing and adjusting its headset development strategy, hence it is possible that there will be no new models of Apple Vision Pro in 2025 (compared to the previous expectation of new models in 2H25/4Q25). Apple currently anticipates a possible year-on-year decline in the shipment of Apple Vision Pro in 2025.

The reduction in orders for Apple Vision Pro implies that the following emerging trends may fall below market expectations:

• MR Headsets: The challenge for Apple Vision Pro lies in simultaneously addressing the lack of key applications, pricing, and comfort of wearing without sacrificing the user experience of transparency. In comparison, although VR is also a niche market, it has at least demonstrated successful applications (gaming) and better trend visibility than MR.
• Pancake: Due to the slowing upgrade of mobile optical specifications over the past few years, investors are expecting the selling price of pancake, significantly higher than lenses, to become a new growth driver for the optical industry. The lower-than-expected shipment of Apple Vision Pro will likely result in the future contribution of pancake to the revenue of the optical industry falling below investor expectations.
• Micro OLED: Apple Vision Pro/MR headsets are the key applications for Micro OLED. With the slower-than-expected growth trend in key applications, the mass production and adoption of Micro OLED by other small-sized consumer electronic devices will be postponed.

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