Kuo: Apple’s new design may launch next year, facing major sales drop

Apple’s Latest Developments and Challenges

The latest news from Apple has sparked heated discussions in the industry. According to the latest article by the Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on Medium, based on the latest supply chain research, it is expected that Apple will lower its shipment forecast for the 2024 iPhone to about 200 million units, a 15% year-on-year decrease. He pointed out that this may make Apple the brand with the largest decline among the major smartphone brands globally in 2024.

Specifically, Ming-Chi Kuo mentioned that the shipment volumes of the iPhone 15 series and the new iPhone 16 series are expected to experience a 10-15% year-on-year decline in the first and second quarters of this year. The significant decline is primarily due to the “structural challenges” that the iPhone is facing, which include two main aspects:

Firstly, there is the “new paradigm of design” in the high-end smartphone market, including AI-enabled phones and foldable phones. These new types of phones are gradually becoming the preferred choice for high-end users, thereby exerting competitive pressure on traditional iPhones.

Secondly, there is the ongoing decline in the Chinese market, mainly due to Huawei’s resurgence and the gradual preference for foldable phones among high-end users when upgrading their devices. This has resulted in more intense competition and pressure for Apple in the Chinese market.


In the past few weeks, Apple’s weekly shipment volume has shown a 30-40% year-on-year decline, and this trend may continue. The emergence of this trend may be related to the current global economic environment, declining consumer purchasing power, and other factors. At the same time, this also reflects that Apple is facing certain structural challenges in product innovation and marketing strategies.

Ming-Chi Kuo also made predictions about the direction of Apple’s future models. He believes that Apple may not introduce “significantly redesigned” new iPhone models until 2025 at the earliest and release a more comprehensive and differentiated AI ecosystem or applications. Before that, the aforementioned structural challenges may continue to have an adverse impact on the momentum of iPhone shipments and the growth of its ecosystem.

In a previous report, the foreign media outlet The Information claimed that Apple is considering introducing a dedicated camera button in the iPhone 16 series. The button adopts a mechanical design but supports touch control on the surface, enabling zoom in/out function. Additionally, the button can respond to changes in pressure, allowing users to lightly press for focusing and press firmly to take a photo. This move may bring a new experience to the iPhone’s photography capabilities, attracting more attention and favor from users.

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